June 11, 2004

Pre-election numbers

I've noticed some projecting an attitude of doom and gloom with regards to the Bush polling numbers. Hey Andrew? You might not want to take the LA Times at its word. Both links via Hugh Hewitt. Even more interesting is the link to the Iowa futures market for the presidential race of 2004. The current numbers might surprise you. Even Zogby, who called the race for Kerry last month, provides this update wherein he notes the Bush has been gaining on Kerry of late. Excerpt:

The poll numbers reflect a slight improvement for the President. Based on interactive polls conducted June 1-6 by Zogby Interactive of Utica, New York in 16 battleground states around the country, Democratic presidential challenger John Kerry would defeat the incumbent today by an Electoral College tally of 296 to 242. However, races in several states are simply too close to call.

Two weeks ago, Mr. Kerry held a 102-vote lead in the Electoral College, 320-218.

Rasmussen has the race still a dead heat. Hmm. Two prominent pollsters known for their accuracy show Bush closing the gap against Kerry or pulling even. The futures market lists somewhat towards the incumbent. And yet the LA Times decides to bravely buck the trend and post their completely madeup numbers. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results, of course, but I'm betting against the LA Times. Call me crazy.

Posted by Physics Geek at June 11, 2004 03:59 PM StumbleUpon Toolbar Stumble It!